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Nine crypto companies have formed the Quantum Alliance to develop shared security standards for blockchains facing a possible future quantum-computing threat. The alliance estimates that public keys are exposed for 6.4 million bitcoin, but no current quantum computer can use that exposure to steal funds, and researchers disagree about when one might be capable.
Nine crypto companies have formed the Quantum Alliance to develop shared security standards for Bitcoin, Ethereum and other blockchain networks, as researchers warn that future quantum computers could threaten wallets with exposed public keys. The alliance estimates that 6.4 million bitcoin have public keys exposed, but no existing quantum computer can currently use them to steal the funds.
The alliance plans to publish common security tests and guidance for moving existing networks to quantum-resistant systems. Its members include Hacken, the Midnight Foundation, Quantus and Postquant Labs. The report did not specify a publication date for the planned materials.
Quantum computers powerful enough to break today’s cryptography could, in principle, use a wallet’s publicly visible key to derive its secret key and authorize transactions. The alliance’s estimate puts the exposed holdings at 30.2% of bitcoin’s supply, including about 1.1 million bitcoin attributed to Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto. Those figures describe potential exposure, not coins that can be taken with present-day machines.
Researchers differ on when such a machine might be developed. Richard Carback, chief technology officer of Postquant Labs, said he considers 2028 a realistic date for a machine capable of breaking current cryptography. Bryn Bennett, chief revenue officer at The Vault, said there is no reliable date and that organizations should plan for the possibility of needing to migrate early. The timing remains disputed.
A Network-Wide Security Migration
The announcement addresses a security problem that would require action across the Bitcoin ecosystem, rather than a change one wallet provider could make alone. Replacing transaction signatures with quantum-resistant alternatives would require coordination among developers, miners, wallet providers, exchanges, custodians and users.
Such a migration could also affect how transactions fit on the blockchain. The report says replacement signatures may take up more space, which could raise fees or limit transaction capacity. Researchers are working on ways to reduce that effect, but the alliance has not yet published its standards or technical guidance.
The stakes also include questions about property rights and network neutrality. Proposals to freeze or otherwise restrict vulnerable coins might reduce the risk of a future theft, but critics argue that a freeze could violate the principle that bitcoin cannot be confiscated. Any such action would require decisions about who has authority and whose assets would be affected.
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Debate Over Vulnerable Bitcoin
The report describes an ongoing debate over coins whose public keys are already exposed, including Satoshi Nakamoto’s estimated holdings. Binance founder Changpeng Zhao has suggested freezing those coins if they remain untouched as quantum technology advances. Bitcoin developer Jameson Lopp has also proposed restrictions on vulnerable holdings. These are proposals, not adopted Bitcoin network rules.
Carback favors moving vulnerable coins rather than freezing them and has suggested placing them in a trust, with owners able to recover funds by proving ownership. Bennett said the issue has no single industry owner: custodians protect client assets, while a freeze would be a governance decision for the Bitcoin network.
Quantus CEO Christopher Smith warned that whoever develops the first cryptographically relevant quantum computer could try to take the exposed tokens, potentially with a government’s backing. That is a risk scenario he described to CoinDesk, not evidence that a capable machine exists or that an attack is underway.
“Nobody knows the date, but the estimates keep falling, and the risk is one we can already plan for.”
— Bryn Bennett, chief revenue officer at The Vault
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Threat Timeline and Coin Protections
No precise timeline has been established for a quantum computer capable of breaking the cryptography used by Bitcoin and Ethereum. The 2028 estimate is one researcher’s view, while others say the date is unknown. No existing machine can carry out the described attack.
It is also unclear how the Bitcoin network would respond if the threat became imminent. Proposals range from migrating to new signatures to moving, freezing or placing vulnerable coins in a trust, but the report says there is no agreement on which approach should be used. The cost, migration process and effects on transaction capacity also remain unsettled.
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Alliance Standards and Network Decisions
The Quantum Alliance says it plans to publish security tests and migration guidance for blockchain networks. Those materials could help developers assess defenses and plan upgrades, though the alliance has not announced when they will appear or how participating networks would adopt them.
For Bitcoin, any change to transaction signatures or rules affecting vulnerable coins would need broad coordination and agreement across the network’s participants. The next developments to watch are the alliance’s technical recommendations, further research on the resources needed to break current cryptography, and any formal proposals for handling exposed holdings.
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Key Questions
What is the Quantum Alliance?
It is a group of nine crypto companies formed to develop shared security standards for Bitcoin, Ethereum and other blockchain networks facing a possible future quantum-computing threat.
Can quantum computers steal the exposed bitcoin now?
No. The report says no existing quantum computer is powerful enough to derive the secret keys and steal funds using the exposed public keys.
How many bitcoin does the alliance estimate are exposed?
The alliance estimates that public keys are exposed for 6.4 million bitcoin, or 30.2% of bitcoin’s supply. The report includes an estimated 1.1 million bitcoin attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto in that discussion.
When could quantum computers threaten bitcoin?
There is no agreed date. Postquant Labs’ Richard Carback said 2028 is realistic, while other researchers and industry figures say the timeline is unknown. These are forecasts, not confirmation that a capable machine exists.
Could vulnerable bitcoin be frozen?
Freezing vulnerable coins has been proposed, but no such rule has been adopted. The idea is disputed because it raises property-rights and governance questions about who could restrict coins and under what authority.
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